Luke
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CibbuanoThe Oscars - The Actor stats
January 29th 2007 10:46
Okay, I said I'd talk some more about the nominees this year and go through some statistics. I know this might bore some of you but it's my blog so nyaaaaaaaahhhhhh, I'll write what I like. Before we launch into this though, bear in mind that I haven't seen all the performances and that I'm speaking about this strictly from a statistics viewpoint. I'm pretty much judging my guesses on how the Academy has voted in the past.
BEST ACTOR
Of the nominees this year there are two who have never been nominated before, these are young hunkster Ryan Gosling and underrated character-actor Forest Whitaker. Gosling was the most surprising nominee for this category, he didn't get a Golden Globe nomination and he isn't exactly well known. Whitaker might be doing a Philip Seymour Hoffman though, following through on years of unsung supporting-work with one role of a lifetime. If the Academy is feeling generous this year they just might give it to Whitaker, and I think of the five nominees he is probably the biggest underdog - let's face it, he'll probably never get nominated again.
Peter O'Toole, on the other hand, is probably the most deserving of it - if only to reward him for all the times he has missed out (though, truth be told, I hear he's pretty damn good in 'Venus' too). If O'Toole loses this time he will become the most nominated actor in Oscar history to not get a competitive statue. As it stands, he has seven non-winning nominations to his name (equal to Richard Burton), all nominations for the Best Actor category. They are... 'Lawrence of Arabia' (1962), 'Becket' (1964), 'The Lion in Winter' (1968), 'Goodbye Mr. Chips' (1969), 'The Ruling Class' (1972), 'The Stunt Man' (1980) and 'My Favourite Year' (1982). I have a feeling that O'Toole might just win it.
The other two nominees are Leonardo DiCaprio and Will Smith. This is DiCaprio's third nomination now, his previous being Best Actor for 'The Aviator' (2004) and Best Supporting Actor for 'What's Eating Gilbert Grape?' (1993). DiCaprio has an outside chance, but to be honest I hope he doesn't win it, if only because another loss might encourage him to follow on with the great work he has been doing, hahaha. Smith has no chance whatsoever... this is his second nomination, he was previously nominated for Best Actor for 'Ali' (2001). I can't really see him winning at all. A lot of people probably saw 'Ali' as a fluke or one-off, this second nomination improves his credibility a bit but if he goes back to doing crap like 'Hitch' and 'Bad Boys' then he will never really be taken seriously. Don't get me wrong, I look forward to seeing his performance in 'The Pursuit of Happyness', I just hope he does more stuff along this line in the future rather than another 'Men in Black' movie.
My bet is that the Oscar will be either O'Toole's or Whitaker's.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I'm less confident of guessing the outcome of the Best Supporting Actor nominations, it's a real mixed bag this year. I guess that's the great thing about the Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories, you can never guess who's going to be nominated.
If I was forced to make a guesstimate, I'd probably go with either Alan Arkin or Eddie Murphy. Eddie Murphy has never been nominated before... he's never really put himself in a position to be nominated before. I haven't seen 'Dreamgirls' but I've always felt that he would really kick arse at more dramatic roles, so it's on this hunch that I'm basing this very shaky guess. In the past the Academy has awarded comedians for turning 'straight' in surprising supporting roles, the ones that automatically spring to mind are Red Buttons' win for 'Sayonara' in 1957, Whoopi Goldberg's statue-winning turn in 'Ghost' (1990), and George Burns' comeback in 'The Sunshine Boys' (1975).
Alan Arkin also has a good chance of winning for being the veteran of the bunch. For an old, respected actor like Arkin - someone who never got huge but has an impressive array of film roles to his name - it probably wouldn't take much for him to win. Like James Coburn and Jack Palance before him, all it might take is a nomination - the Academy might award him the Oscar for all his past work, his latest nomination just a symbol of this. Arkin was last nominated about 38 years ago, a Best Actor nomination for 'The Heart is a Lonely Hunter' (1969). Prior to that he was nominated for 'The Russians are Coming, The Russians are Coming' (1968).
The other nominees are (in my guesstimation) outside chances. Jackie Earle Haley is the real surprise... he was an emerging teen star in the 70s but faded away in the mid 80s. He went for 13 years without acting in a single film or television show before getting plum roles in both 'Little Children' and the remake of 'All the King's Men' last year. Just getting nominated is a win for him.
Mark Wahlberg has never been nominated before. Don't know what else to say about ol' Marky Mark. Good to see the Academy didn't get snobby about nominating him, he was very entertaining in 'The Departed'. Djimon Honsou is on his second nomination for Best Supporting Actor, he previously got nominated for 'In America' in 2002, and he seems to be building up an impressive portfolio of roles. He might be an outside chance for the statue, but I think he's still too much of an unknown quantity... it shouldn't be too hard for him to get nominated again though now that he's wracked up two of them.
And that's it for the Actors. As for the ladies... stay tuned!
Leonardo DiCaprio and Djimon Honsou
BEST ACTOR
Of the nominees this year there are two who have never been nominated before, these are young hunkster Ryan Gosling and underrated character-actor Forest Whitaker. Gosling was the most surprising nominee for this category, he didn't get a Golden Globe nomination and he isn't exactly well known. Whitaker might be doing a Philip Seymour Hoffman though, following through on years of unsung supporting-work with one role of a lifetime. If the Academy is feeling generous this year they just might give it to Whitaker, and I think of the five nominees he is probably the biggest underdog - let's face it, he'll probably never get nominated again.
Peter O'Toole, on the other hand, is probably the most deserving of it - if only to reward him for all the times he has missed out (though, truth be told, I hear he's pretty damn good in 'Venus' too). If O'Toole loses this time he will become the most nominated actor in Oscar history to not get a competitive statue. As it stands, he has seven non-winning nominations to his name (equal to Richard Burton), all nominations for the Best Actor category. They are... 'Lawrence of Arabia' (1962), 'Becket' (1964), 'The Lion in Winter' (1968), 'Goodbye Mr. Chips' (1969), 'The Ruling Class' (1972), 'The Stunt Man' (1980) and 'My Favourite Year' (1982). I have a feeling that O'Toole might just win it.
The other two nominees are Leonardo DiCaprio and Will Smith. This is DiCaprio's third nomination now, his previous being Best Actor for 'The Aviator' (2004) and Best Supporting Actor for 'What's Eating Gilbert Grape?' (1993). DiCaprio has an outside chance, but to be honest I hope he doesn't win it, if only because another loss might encourage him to follow on with the great work he has been doing, hahaha. Smith has no chance whatsoever... this is his second nomination, he was previously nominated for Best Actor for 'Ali' (2001). I can't really see him winning at all. A lot of people probably saw 'Ali' as a fluke or one-off, this second nomination improves his credibility a bit but if he goes back to doing crap like 'Hitch' and 'Bad Boys' then he will never really be taken seriously. Don't get me wrong, I look forward to seeing his performance in 'The Pursuit of Happyness', I just hope he does more stuff along this line in the future rather than another 'Men in Black' movie.
My bet is that the Oscar will be either O'Toole's or Whitaker's.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I'm less confident of guessing the outcome of the Best Supporting Actor nominations, it's a real mixed bag this year. I guess that's the great thing about the Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories, you can never guess who's going to be nominated.
If I was forced to make a guesstimate, I'd probably go with either Alan Arkin or Eddie Murphy. Eddie Murphy has never been nominated before... he's never really put himself in a position to be nominated before. I haven't seen 'Dreamgirls' but I've always felt that he would really kick arse at more dramatic roles, so it's on this hunch that I'm basing this very shaky guess. In the past the Academy has awarded comedians for turning 'straight' in surprising supporting roles, the ones that automatically spring to mind are Red Buttons' win for 'Sayonara' in 1957, Whoopi Goldberg's statue-winning turn in 'Ghost' (1990), and George Burns' comeback in 'The Sunshine Boys' (1975).
Alan Arkin also has a good chance of winning for being the veteran of the bunch. For an old, respected actor like Arkin - someone who never got huge but has an impressive array of film roles to his name - it probably wouldn't take much for him to win. Like James Coburn and Jack Palance before him, all it might take is a nomination - the Academy might award him the Oscar for all his past work, his latest nomination just a symbol of this. Arkin was last nominated about 38 years ago, a Best Actor nomination for 'The Heart is a Lonely Hunter' (1969). Prior to that he was nominated for 'The Russians are Coming, The Russians are Coming' (1968).
The other nominees are (in my guesstimation) outside chances. Jackie Earle Haley is the real surprise... he was an emerging teen star in the 70s but faded away in the mid 80s. He went for 13 years without acting in a single film or television show before getting plum roles in both 'Little Children' and the remake of 'All the King's Men' last year. Just getting nominated is a win for him.
Mark Wahlberg has never been nominated before. Don't know what else to say about ol' Marky Mark. Good to see the Academy didn't get snobby about nominating him, he was very entertaining in 'The Departed'. Djimon Honsou is on his second nomination for Best Supporting Actor, he previously got nominated for 'In America' in 2002, and he seems to be building up an impressive portfolio of roles. He might be an outside chance for the statue, but I think he's still too much of an unknown quantity... it shouldn't be too hard for him to get nominated again though now that he's wracked up two of them.
And that's it for the Actors. As for the ladies... stay tuned!
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